Renewable energy reached a record 49.4% of global installed electricity capacity in 2025, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), showcasing unprecedented growth in the clean energy sector. However, this promising milestone is overshadowed by a significant surge in coal power development in China and extensive natural gas infrastructure expansion in the United States, threatening the ambitious COP28 target to triple renewable capacity by 2030. The dual trajectory highlights a critical divergence in global energy policy, where the acceleration of clean energy is paradoxically accompanied by a persistent reliance on fossil fuels.
The "Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026" report, published by IRENA in April 2026, reveals that global renewable power capacity soared to 5.15 terawatts (TW) by the end of 2025, following a record 692 gigawatts (GW) of additions during the year—a 15.5% annual increase. Solar power led this remarkable expansion, contributing 511 GW, or approximately 75% of all new renewable capacity, with wind energy following at 159 GW. Together, these two intermittent sources accounted for nearly 97% of net renewable additions, demonstrating their cost-competitiveness and ease of deployment globally. Francesco La Camera, IRENA Director-General, emphasized the inherent strength of this trend: "In the midst of uncertain time, renewable energy remains consistent and steadfast in its expansion. This not only indicates market preference but also makes a strong case for renewable energy resilience with brutal clarity.".
Despite this impressive growth, the world remains considerably off track to meet the COP28 pledge, made by governments in late 2023, to triple global renewable energy capacity to at least 11 TW by 2030. To achieve this goal, an average of 1,000 GW of new renewable capacity must be installed annually for the remainder of the decade, a pace significantly higher than the 692 GW added in 2025. IRENA has expressed concern that the current rate of deployment, while historic, may not be sufficient to reach the 2030 target.
Compounding this challenge is the robust expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure in major economies. China, a global leader in renewable energy deployment, simultaneously continues a massive build-out of coal-fired power plants. In 2024, construction began on 94.5 GW of new coal projects, the highest level since 2015, with over 80 GW of coal capacity expected to be commissioned in 2025, making it the biggest year for coal power completions in a decade. China now accounts for an estimated 93% of new coal power construction worldwide. This strategy, often framed around energy security and grid stability alongside renewable integration, leads to "energy addition" rather than a true transition away from fossil fuels, with clean energy often layered on top of existing carbon-intensive systems.
Similarly, the United States is pushing forward with significant natural gas infrastructure projects. In 2025 alone, natural gas pipeline projects added approximately 6.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of capacity, primarily directed towards the Gulf Coast to serve booming liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities and the rapidly expanding demand from data centers. The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA) projects that North America will require an additional 37,000 miles of new natural gas transmission pipelines and 70 Bcf/d of additional transmission capacity by 2052, with investments averaging $40–48 billion annually. This expansion fuels a projected tripling of LNG exports by 2052, locking in decades of fossil fuel reliance.
The simultaneous expansion of both renewable energy and fossil fuel infrastructure, particularly the "sharp rebound in non-renewable additions" noted by IRENA, creates a precarious situation for global climate goals. While renewable energy is proving its economic and operational advantages, the continued investment in coal and gas undermines the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels. Climate analysts warn that this dual-track approach risks making the COP28 tripling target unattainable and jeopardizes the world's ability to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Looking ahead, the next few years will be crucial in determining whether nations can align their energy policies with their climate pledges. Achieving the 2030 renewable energy target will require not only accelerated deployment but also concerted efforts to phase down fossil fuel investments and implement policies that actively displace, rather than merely supplement, conventional energy sources. The global community must prioritize a genuine energy transition to avert the most severe impacts of climate change.