Global renewable energy capacity has surpassed 47 percent of total installed electricity generation for the first time in history, according to new data from the International Energy Agency released Monday. Yet the milestone is tempered by an equally striking figure: fossil fuel expansion in 2025 outpaced clean energy investment by a wider margin than any year since 2015.
Solar and wind installations drove the renewable surge, with China alone accounting for 38 percent of new capacity added globally. The European Union hit its 2025 renewable targets two months ahead of schedule, while India crossed 200 gigawatts of solar capacity.
"We are running two races simultaneously, and losing the one that matters for 2030," said Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director. "Renewable capacity is growing impressively. But until we see absolute reductions in fossil fuel combustion, atmospheric CO2 concentrations will keep rising."
The IEA now estimates a 68 percent probability that average global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels on a sustained basis before 2035, up from 52 percent in its 2023 assessment.
Reaching net-zero by 2050 would require tripling current renewable investment and retiring coal plants at a rate three times faster than the current trajectory. The findings set the stage for the COP32 negotiations scheduled for November in Nairobi, where negotiators are expected to face pressure to strengthen national commitments under the Paris Agreement framework.